As the general elections approach, the atmosphere intensifies. Elections are scheduled for two national and five provincial constituencies in the Pakpattan district of Baba Farid.

In the last two general elections, the majority of national and provincial seats in the Pakpattan district were won by the PML-N. The current scenario continues to favour them, although the party candidates are facing challenges arising from the delay in resolving the issue concerning the PTI's symbol.

On the other hand, the People's Party, Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan, and other parties are critiquing the performance of both PTI and PML-N. Tehreek-e-Insaf is actively conducting a campaign to capitalise on a narrative of victimhood.

The population of this district comprises 21 lakh 36 thousand 170 people, with a registered voter count of 12 lakh 4 thousand 136. Among these, there are  6 lakh 48 thousand 261 male voters and 5 lakh 55 thousand 875 female voters.

NA-139, the first national seat of Pakpattan district, encompasses the city and a major portion of Pakpattan tehsil. In the previous election, this seat was won by PML-N's Ahmed Raza Manika, with PTI's Mohammad Shah Khaga securing the second position. Independent candidates Mansab Ali Dogar and Rao Naseem Hashim received approximately 23,500 and 25,500 votes, respectively.

This time, Mansab Ali Dogar has returned to the Muslim League-Nawaz, while Ahmed Raza Manika is again a candidate for the PML-N from here. Instead of Rao Naseem Hashim, his son Rao Umar Hashim is the PTI candidate. His nomination papers were rejected in the preliminary scrutiny.

Rajput (Rana and Rao) Wattoo, Chishti, Manika, Jat, Khokhar, Malik, Rahmani, Nunari, Bhatti, Sukhera and Mughal communities are major communities in this constituency.

Although the PTI is under fire, Rao Umar Hashim has a large vote bank here with the Rajput community. His grandfather, Rao Hashim Khan, was the leader of the People's Party, a parliamentarian, and chairman of the Land Commission from 1977 to 1997, while his father, Rao Naseem Hashim, was the District Nazam.

Similarly, the former Member of the Assembly, Ahmed Raza Manika, holds significant family influence in the area. In the upcoming election, rather than Muhammad Shah from the Khaga family, his brother, former MPA Ahmed Shah Khaga, is contesting for the national seat.

The Khaga family holds a substantial vote bank in this constituency. Ahmad Shah Qaumi and his brother Muhammad Shah Khaga are currently campaigning as independent candidates for the provincial seat. Yet, there is a possibility that they might become candidates for either the People's Party or the IPP.

Aside from community dynamics and local manipulations in the contest for this seat, the strategies employed by major parties will also play a crucial role. A party adopting a weak strategy might face defeat despite having substantial popular support.

Journalist Mahmood Ahmad suggests that the League factions agree regarding the national constituency, but there is a division within the PML-N concerning the provincial constituencies. Failure to resolve these internal differences may pose a risk to the PML-N.

The majority of Tehsil Arifwala is situated within NA-140. In the previous elections, Rana Aradat Sharif of PML-N emerged victorious from this constituency. Tehreek-e-Insaf's Amjad Joya secured the second position with a margin of 37 thousand votes, while Shaukat Bajwa of the People's Party occupied the fourth position.

On this seat, Ghulam Mustafa of the Human Party got more than 21,000 votes, while TLP received around 10,000 votes.

Former National Assembly member Rana Aradat Sharif is the sole representative from the PML-N in this constituency. Apart from the Rajput community, the Joya and Arain communities also hold significant voting strength in this area.

Amjad Joya is currently maintaining silence, but there is speculation that Dr Junaid Mumtaz Joya from his community might be considered a potential candidate for the PPP. Additionally, Shaukat Ali Bajwa is reportedly in contact with the PPP leadership.

Naeem Ibrahim of PTI and Chaudhry Sultan Ali of Tehreek-e-Labaik both hail from the Arain community. This situation has the potential to create challenges for Tehreek-e-Insaf.

Thus, Rana Aradat, Naeem Ibrahim and Junaid Mumtaz Joya are expected to compete this time, but the PML-N is still looking significant here.

Ahmad Hasan, a resident of this constituency, expresses concern, noting that while the PML-N consistently wins here, there has been a lack of significant development projects such as hospitals, universities, or technical colleges in Pakpattan.

PP-193 Pakpattan One comprises areas such as Bonga Hayat, Kanipur, Shamgarh, etc. Mian Hayat and Farooq Manika are competing for the PML-N ticket in this constituency. Mian Hayat is noteworthy as the son-in-law of former Prime Minister Imran Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi, and the son of former minister Atta Maneka, who was a PML-N candidate in the last election.

Farooq Manika, a member of the same party, is the brother of former MNA Ahmed Raza. In the previous election, he ran as an independent candidate but was narrowly defeated by the PTI candidate, losing by a margin of 100 votes.

Farrukh Mumtaz Manika, who won last time from here on a PTI ticket, is now contesting the election with the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party. Mohammad Iftikhar Golarvi of Tehreek-e-Labaik and independent candidate Zahid Sarfraz Wattoo are also among the prominent candidates.

Although PML-N has strong candidates in this seat, this constituency may also go to IPP in seat adjustment.

PP 194 consists of Pakpattan City, Malika Hans, etc., where Chishti, Wattoo and Arain are the majority communities. The community votes to decide the fate of candidates in this constituency, so in the past, most of the Arain and Chishti candidates were successful here. Last time, this seat belonged to the Arain community.

Journalist Ahmed Shehzad says that the PML-N has split into three factions over this provincial seat, one of which is former MPA Mian Naveed Ali, the other is Chaudhry Javed Ahmed and the third faction is Chaudhry Bashir Ahmed. All three are hopeful for the ticket.

He says that the Arain community is stronger in this provincial constituency and all three PML-N candidates belong to the Arain community.

"If Mian Naveed Ali gets the ticket, he is expected to face Chaudhry Javed, who may contest the election as an independent if he does not get the ticket. The PML-N may suffer due to the presence of two candidates from the Arain community."

In PP 195, Mansab Ali Dogar and Salman Safdar Dhillon are candidates from PTI. Muhammad Shah Khaga emerged as an independent candidate. The three candidates for this seat are likely to have a tough contest.

Rao Jameel Hashim also submitted his nomination papers from this constituency, but he did not start his election campaign here.

Mohammad Azam, well-versed in local politics, emphasises that in Arifwala city, individual votes are crucial, indicating independent voter choices. However, in rural areas, factionalism plays a significant role. Both PP-195 and PP-196 fall within Tehsil Arifwala.

In PP-196, Dr Farrukh Javed represents PML-N, and Syed Fakhrul Salam Shah is the candidate for PPP. PTI's contenders for the party ticket are Naeem Ibrahim and Raja Talat Saeed.

Additionally, Ahmad Zeeshan Khokhar is running as the candidate for the Central Muslim League, and Mufti Abdul Rasool Rizvi is representing Tehreek Labaik.

Azam states that Chak No 149 EB has a significant Arain community; Daha in 163 EB Muhammad Nagar is predominantly inhabited by Daha, the Kamboh community resides in 167 Chak, and the Wattoo community is present in 161 EB. The Gujjar community holds votes in 351 and 353 EB. Manipulation becomes possible for candidates due to the presence of distinct communities and consolidated votes in these areas.

He says that Chak No. 145, 143, 155, and 157 EB belong to the Rajput community. This community generally tends to support the same candidate, and their votes play a crucial role in determining the outcomes of both the national and provincial constituencies.

PP-197 includes areas such as Noorpur, Dhapi, Malika Hans, Shafi, etc., from both Arifwala and Pakpattan tehsils. While there are other candidates for this seat, the final competition is anticipated between PML-N's Kashif Ali Chishti and PTI's Salman Safdar Dhillon.

TLP candidates are actively participating in this area, and they have the potential to influence Kashif Chishti's religious vote bank.

Consequently, robust competition is expected in this constituency.