Like in the rest of the country, the new political landscape in Kasur is also forming with traditional families and familiar faces. Here, it appears that the voter does not break free from the circle of communities, but the ultimate decision will be made on polling day.
This district will witness contests for four national and ten provincial seats in the upcoming general election. In the previous election, PML-N won three national and six provincial seats, whereas PTI won one national and three provincial seats.
The first national constituency, NA-131, of the Kasur district includes Kasur city and Mustafabad areas. Among the major players for this seat are Saad Waseem of PML-N, Bakhtiar Kasuri of PTI, Maqsood Sabir Ansari, and Maher Muhammad Saleem, while Chaudhry Manzoor Ahmed of PPP is also in the running.
Saad Wasim's father, Waseem Akhtar, served as a member of the National Assembly for two consecutive terms, having lost once to Chaudhary Manzoor. In the last general election, Saad Waseem secured victory by defeating the former foreign minister and PTI candidate, Sardar Asif Ahmed Ali, while PPP's Chaudhry Manzoor came in third.
Chaudhary Manzoor is a central leader of the People's Party but has been elected as a Member of the National Assembly (MNA) once and faced defeat three times against the PML-N.
Bakhtiar Kasuri is the brother of former Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri, who also runs a school system and is a newcomer to practical politics. Meher Muhammad Saleem is the former president of the district bar and is perceived to be close to Khursheed Kasuri.
PTI's third candidate, Maqsood Saber Ansari, has been the Vice Chairman of the District Council and his father, Ghulam Saber Ansari, was elected MPA five times. Whoever gets the ticket out of the three will not be an easy prospect.
Apart from the community vote, the general attitude of the party and the candidate is vital for this seat. In this constituency, people's support and the inclination of the district administration play a significant role in influencing the election process.
Workers of PPP and PTI have protested twice in Kasur in the past few days, in which both accused the district administration of supporting PML-N.
NA-132 includes villages and towns of Tehsil Kot Radha Kishan and Tehsil Kasur, where the PML-N has been ruling for 15 years. Being a rural and semi-urban constituency, the preferences of voters and candidates are different.
In this constituency, the President of PML-N, former Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and PTI's Rashid Tufail are competing for the national seat. Former PML-N MNA Malik Rasheed Ahmed and his son Mazhar Rasheed are candidates for provincial seats.
Sardar Tufail, father of PTI candidate Rashid Tufail, was elected member of the National and Provincial Assembly several times from here. After his death, Rashid Tufail contested the election on the PTI ticket but lost to Malik Rashid of PML-N.
Arain and Ansari are the major communities in this constituency, while the vote belonging to the Barelvi and Ahl-Hadith schools of thought also plays an important role.
Shahbaz Sharif enjoys the support of PML-N and the Malik Rasheed Group in this constituency. Noteworthy development projects such as the Kot Radha Kishan Kasur Road and Overhead Bridge are credited to them, potentially influencing voters. Additionally, Shahbaz Sharif's personality and close association with Raiwand could work in his favour.
On the other hand, Rashid Tufail's leading vote bank is the Mayo community. But this time, he may get a sympathy vote from PTI as there is popular support for PTI in cities as well as villages.
However, Rashid Tufail is under severe pressure due to allegations against his wife and daughter of involvement in the May 9 incidents. His covering candidate is former bureaucrat Haji Mohammad Dogar.
According to Tehreek Labaik candidate Muneer Saqi, the religious vote in NA-132 will be divided between Ahtesham Elahi Zaheer of Ahle-Hadith, Rao Akhtar Ali of Jamaat-e-Islami and TLP.
"If the TLP brings a candidate from the Mewati community, it will take a larger share of the religious vote, which will benefit the PML-N."
NA 133 consists of Tehsil Chunian and Tehsil Patuki. Major players here include Rana Ishaq of PML-N, Asif Nakai of IPP and Azeemuddin Lakhvi of PTI, and tough competition is expected among them.
The Rana and Nakai groups are traditional rivals. Even if there is any seat adjustment between PML-N and IPP, it is likely that the two rival groups will not leave the political field empty for each other. PTI can take advantage of this for the first time.
Rana Muhammad Ishaq has been elected MNA three times. He is the cousin of former Speaker Rana Muhammad Iqbal and brother of former MNA Rana Muhammad Hayat from Patoki.
Sardar Asif Nakai is the son of former Chief Minister Sardar Arif Nakai. In the 2002 general elections, he was elected simultaneously from NA-140 and NA-141 on the Q-League platform. Finally, he reached the National Assembly from NA 141, and in 2004, he was included in the Federal Cabinet. He was also given the Ministry of Housing and Works. In the 2008 and 2013 elections, he was elected MPA from PP-183 on the Q League ticket. In 2018, he contested the election on a PTI ticket and was elected MPA from PP180. He was included in the cabinet of Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar and given the Ministry of Communication and Works.
Apart from the PML-N, the Rana family has the support of the Mayo and Rajput communities in this constituency. Meanwhile, Nakai gets votes from the Jat and Dogar communities. Being a rural constituency, the party vote here remains low.
In NA 134 comes the area of Tehsil Patuki. The political and social structure of this constituency is not different from NA-133. There is also a rivalry between the Rana and Nikai families. Rana Mohammad Hayat of PML-N and Sardar Talib Nakai of IPP will join forces.
No big name has emerged from PTI in this constituency, but the workers have submitted their nomination papers.
The Jamaat-e-Islami candidate here, Haji Muhammad Ramzan, says that he will get PTI's vote because there is no leadership of the party here. He believes that he will prevail with the support of the Arain community and the religious vote.
Three provincial constituencies, PP-175, 178 and PP-179, have been held by PML-N candidates for two decades. They have a strong vote bank of faction and community. These candidates include Malik Rashid Ahmed, Malik Ahmed Saeed and Malik Ahmed Khan.
PML-N's candidate from PP-175 is former MNA Malik Rasheed, who has won the last two elections from here. This time, he has left his national constituency for Shahbaz Sharif.
PTI's candidate for this seat is former ticket holder Tanveer Hayat Joiya. The candidate of IPP is Dawood Qureshi, the son of former MPA and retired bureaucrat Anees Qureshi.
In PP-176, PML-N candidate Chaudhary Ilyas Gujjar has been a member of the Provincial Assembly twice. His opponents are Mrs Muzammil Masood Bhatti and Nasira Mayo from PTI.
Mrs Masood came into politics after the murder of her husband, Masood Bhatti, while Nasira Mayo had contested the last election from the national seat of Patoki on a PTI ticket. Former MPA Nadeem Yaqoob Sethi is also contesting as an independent candidate from here.
Naeem Safdar Ansari, the candidate of PML-N from PP-177, has been MPA of PML-N continuously since 2008. There is a majority of the Ansari community is here and a strong vote bank of PML-N.
PTI candidate Qaiser Ayub Shaikh, an old party worker, may emerge against him. The PPP candidate from this constituency, Asif Ali Khokhar, is the Trade Union president and a senior party worker.
On PP-178, the PML-N candidate is Malik Ahmed Saeed, who has lost only one election in two decades. Opposing him is PTI candidate Barrister Shahid Masood, who has lost the last three elections as an independent candidate.
Meanwhile, PPP candidate Shaheen Safdar is contesting elections for the first time.
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PML-N's candidate in PP-179 is former MPA Malik Ahmad Khan, a special assistant to former Prime Minister Mian Shahbaz Sharif, and holds a prominent position in national politics. Opposite him, PTI's Muhammad Hussain Dogar has previously served as the MPA of the People's Party.
From PP-180, PML-N's Ahsan Raza and IPP's retired Colonel Hashim Dogar will create a political scandal. This constituency is the most debated topic in Kasur because, despite the seat adjustment of PML-N and IPP, PML-N candidates Mazhar Rasheed and Ahsan Raza are pitted against IPP's Hashim Dogar.
If the situation persists, the party may keep this seat open. Q-League and PTI joint candidate Waqas Mokal, the son of former MPA Hasan Akhtar Mokal, is also a strong candidate from the same constituency.
Former Minister Retired Colonel Hashim Dogar had said goodbye to PTI over the May 9 incident and joined the IPP.
Malik Mazhar Rashid of PML-N is the son of MNA Malik Rashid Ahmed Khan, while Ahsan Raza is also a former MPA of PML-N.
Similarly, in PP 181, a thorny contest is expected between PML-N's Sheikh Alauddin and IPP's Rao Shahid Qayyum. Sheikh Alauddin is a former Member of the Provincial Assembly and is also a businessman.
PTI's candidate is Hanbal Sana Karimi, whose father, Mian Abdul Khaliq Sani, was the Tehsil Nazim of Chunian. IPP's Rao Zahid Qayyum's father, Rao Qayyum, has been an activist of the People's Party and a member of the Provincial Assembly.
PML-N candidate Mahmood Anwar Chaudhary, PTI's Aqeel Aslam and IPP candidate Pir Mukhtar Ahmed are contesting at PP-182. Mehmood Anwar is a businessman who won elections earlier on the PML-N platform.
On the other hand, Rana Aqeel is an old worker at PTI.
IPP candidate Pir Mukhtar Ahmed is an old politician and former Tehsil Nazim Chunian. He has been MPA five times; the last time, he was elected on a PTI ticket.
On PP-183 and PP-184, community and faction are more pronounced.
PP-182 consists of the civilian population, so national politics and the candidates' personalities influence it. According to local opinion, the winning candidate in this constituency often changes.
On PP-183, former Chairman of District Council Sikandar Hayat is the PML-N candidate contesting the provincial assembly election for the first time. He is the son of former MNA Rana Muhammad Hayat and nephew of Rana Iqbal.
He is competing with traditional rival Asif Nakai of the Nakai family, who is the candidate of IPP and has been elected member of the provincial assembly many times. PTI's expected candidate in this constituency is Rana Almas Liaquat, an old party worker.
Former Speaker of Punjab Assembly Rana Muhammad Iqbal is the candidate of PML-N in the last provincial constituency, PP-184 of Kasur. He will face former DIG and IPP candidate Rana Muhammad Aslam, a close relative of Rana Iqbal and has fought two elections against him from the platform of PTI.
PTI's candidate for this seat is a two-decade-old activist of the party, Zakwat Liaquat.
Published on 16 Jan 2024