The second phase of the 2024 election process has begun nationwide. Objections have been filed on the nomination papers of the candidates, and a series of appeals and hearings will follow. The election campaign in Bhakkar is also currently underway.

The population of Bhakkar district comprises 19 lakh 57 thousand 470 individuals. Among them are 10 lakh 42 thousand 684 registered voters, with five lakh 51 thousand 246 being male and four lakh 91 thousand 438 female voters.

In 2018, two National Assembly (NA) constituencies, previously designated as NA-97 and NA-98, were allocated to this district. In the new constituency delimitation, these have been renumbered as NA-91 (Bhakkar One) and NA-92 (Bhakkar Two). However, there is no significant change in their areas.

In the last election, there were four Provincial Assembly (PA) seats, namely PP-89 Bhakkar One (Kalurkot), PP-90 Bhakkar Two (Darya Khan), PP-91 Bhakkar Three (Mankira), and PP-92 Bhakkar Four (Bhakkar Dehi). A fifth seat, PP-93 Bhakkar Five (Bhakkar Dehi), has been added to the district for the upcoming elections.

Influential families and local factions have dominated politics in the Bhakkar district for decades. Notable among them are the Nawani, Dhandla, Khanankhel, Mastikhel, Shahani, Chhina, Uttara, and Niazi families.

These families often join political parties collectively and exit the party as a unified group.

Salim Khan Baloch, a political activist from Jandanwala, says that the influence of political parties in the Bhakkar district has historically been limited.

An example is the 2002 elections when Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) won all the national and provincial seats.

"The success was not attributed to the newly formed political party but to the Nawani group, which had recently aligned with the PML-Q. When this group entered the elections in Bhakkar, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain won without actively participating in the campaign."

He says that in 2008, the Nawani group contested the elections independently, winning all the seats in the district. Afterwards, they joined the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Then Saeed Akbar Nawani resigned from his seat, facilitating the election of Mian Shahbaz Sharif as MPA from this constituency.

The Dhandla Group, another important political faction in Bhakkar, follows a similar pattern.

Abdul Hameed Dakhna, a resident of Mohalla Malkanwala and a voter for 40 years, mentions that in the past, it was commonly understood in Bhakkar that the Dhandla and Khanankhel families were ideologically associated with PML-N.

Zafarullah Khan Dhandla became a senator for PML-N in 2012; later, his cousin, Dr Afzal, became an MNA from the current NA-92. However, they switched to PTI along with their group in 2018. They returned to PML-N when a no-confidence vote was proposed against Imran Khan.

"Sanaullah Mastikhel's story is also similar. He became an MPA on the PML-Q ticket (from present NA-91) in 2002. He moved to the PML-N in 2008 and contested the last election with the PTI. Here, the voters are cautious about voting for those who address their disputes and police station problems."

In Bhakkar, the Nawani family has formed alliances under 'Nawani Awami Mahaz,' and the Dhandla family has created 'Awami Khidmat Mahaz.'

The Nawani group contested the last election independently, comprising the Nawani, Mastikhel, Uttra, and HasanKhaili families. In the Dhandla group, the Dhandla, Shahani, Khanankhel, and Chhina families were allies.

NA-91 consists of Bhakkar One Kalurkot, Darya Khan, Khansar, and Chak 26 TDA. Under it come the provincial constituencies PP-89 (Kalurkot) and PP-90 Bhakkar Two (Darya Khan).

Last time, Sanaullah Mastikhel of the Nawani group won from this National Assembly constituency. Amir Muhammad Hasan Khaili won from PP-89, and Saeed Akbar Khan Nawani won from PP-90. Meanwhile, the Khanankhel group of the PML-N faced defeat. Later, the three members of the Nawani group joined Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).

NA-92 Bhakkar Two comprises Tehsil Mankira and Tehsil Bhakkar regions. Under it come two provincial constituencies, PP-91 and PP-92. In the last two elections here, the Dhandla Group and Amir Shahani were allies.

In 2018, Dr Afzal Dhandla defeated Rashid Akbar Nawani on the PTI ticket from this national constituency. Meanwhile, on PP-92, Aamir Shahani defeated Malik Zaheer, and on PP-91, Ghazanfar Chheena defeated Saeed Akbar Nawani.

Now, the Shahani family is divided. Aamir Shahani has joined forces with the former rival Nawani group, while Naeemullah Shahani is standing with the Dhandla group. A third alliance has also emerged for the upcoming election, which includes the Mastikhel, Hasan Khaili, and Niazi families.

Journalist Idris Imran says that the Dhandla group is playing both sides of the wicket. The group wants to gain the support of PML-N and does not want to lose the PTI voters. That is why this group has decided to participate in the elections independently.

According to Dhandla's preference, the PML-N leadership has decided not to nominate candidates against Afzal Dhandla on NA-92 Bhakkar-2, Ghazanfar Abbas Chheena on PP-91, Naeemullah Shahani on PP-92, and Ziaullah Khan Dhandla on PP-93.

In NA-91 and PP-89, PML-N has nominated Abdul Majeed Khan, while in PP-90, Malik Nazar Abbas Kahawar is the party's candidate.

The Nawani group is now competing with the Mastikhel and Khanankhel groups of PML-N in NA-91. In NA-92, it is contesting against the Dhandla Group.

Muhammad Salim Baloch says voters' sentiments have shifted in the national and provincial constituencies comprising Kalurkot and Darya Khan. Due to proximity and kinship with Mianwali, people here sympathise with Imran Khan, which is expected to impact the election.

He notes that the situation is different in NA-92, PP-91, PP-92, and PP-93 constituencies of Tehsil Bhakkar and Mankira, where Nawani, Shahani, Chhina, and Dhandla groups have significant influence.      

A total of 22 candidates have submitted their nomination papers for NA-91 Bhakkar One, including Sanaullah Mastikhel and his wife Sundus Khan, Shahab Ali Khokhar, and Imran Khan's cousin Rafiq Ahmed Niazi, who are representing PTI.

The contestants for this seat include independent candidate Saeed Akbar Nawani from Istehkam-e-Pakistan (IPP), Abdul Majeed Khanankhel from PML-N, Taimur Khan, Rustam Ali Saqi from Jamaat-e-Islami (JI), Ameer Mohammad Khan, Ejaz Shahani from Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), and Barrister Swada Kashmir Khan, who is the niece of Sanaullah Mastikhel.

Additionally, there are other candidates in the running.

Nonetheless, in this national constituency, Saeed Akbar Nawani, Abdul Majeed Khanankhel, Sanaullah Mastikhel, or any other nominee from the Mastikhel Group are expected to face tough competition. Abdul Majeed Khanankhel and Sanaullah Mastikhel have won two elections with the support of the Nawani group.

Analyst Tariq Hameed Malik suggests that Sanaullah Mastikhel is on protective bail until January 6 in the May 9 case. If this is not extended, it might pose difficulties for him to contest the election. There is a possibility that Sanaullah's wife, Sundus Khan, could be fielded instead.

Several candidates, including Rashid Akbar Nawani, Dr Muhammad Afzal Dhandla, Malik Zaheer Ahmed Uttra, Habibullah Nawani, Ijaz Shahani of PPP, Syed Ali Bukhari, Rafiq Ahmed Niazi, and Farhan Nisar of PTI, as well as Muhammad Amjad of TLP, have submitted their nomination papers from NA-92 Bhakkar 2.

There will be a competition between Rashid Akbar Nawani and Muhammad Afzal Dhandla for this seat.

A large number of candidates have appeared in the provincial constituencies. In most constituencies, the PTI has submitted papers for more individuals so that another suitable candidate can be fielded if one nomination is rejected.
    
Candidates who have submitted nomination papers for PP-89 Bhakkar One Kalurkot include former MPA Ameer Mohammad Khan, Abdul Jabbar Abbasi (Nawani Group), Hakeem Mohammad Mastikhel, Abdul Majeed Khanankhel (PML-N), Iftikhar Hussain Shah (JI), Farhan Khan Mastikhel, Aziz Ahmed, and others.

A tough competition is expected for this seat between Amir Muhammad Hasan Khaili, Abdul Majeed Khanankhel, and Abdul Jabbar Abbasi.

Constituency PP-90 Bhakkar 2 Darya Khan has received nomination papers from Ahmed Nawaz Nawani, PML-N's Nazar Abbas Kahawar, JI's Naveed Ahsan, PTI's Irfanullah Niazi (four forms), Farhan Nisar, Shahab Ali, TLP's Khalid Umar, and others.

In this constituency, an interesting competition is anticipated between Ahmad Nawaz Nawani, Irfanullah Niazi, and Malik Nazar Kahawar.

The major zamindars of this constituency include Baloch, Qureshi, Jhamat, Wagehwara, Malik, Syed, Ulakh, and Khokhar, who are part of the Nawani group. Meanwhile, Amir Muhammad Khan enjoys significant popularity in the area.

However, the PTI voter base is expected to support Irfanullah Niazi, although his current whereabouts are unknown.

Several candidates, including Saeed Akbar Nawani from PP-91 Bhakkar 3 Mankira, Malik Ghazanfar Abbas Chhina, Malik Ansar Chhina, and Akhtar Qasim from PTI, have submitted their nomination forms for this constituency.

However, the real contest here is expected between Ghazanfar Abbas Chheena and Saeed Akbar Nawani, with Chheena having been elected twice before.

There are 23 candidates, including Aamir Inayat Shahani, Naeemullah Shahani, Malik Zaheer Ahmad Uttara, PTI's Rizwana Nisar, Farhan Nisar, Rafiq Ahmad Niazi, and PPP's Ijaz Shahani, contesting from PP-92 Bhakkar Four (Bhakkar Shahri).

Naeemullah Shahani has been elected three times, and Aamir Inayat Shahani has been elected twice here. Malik Nazir and his son Adil Nazir from the Uttara family were elected once.

This provincial seat will be contested between Amir Inayat Shahani of the Nawani Group and his cousin Naeemullah Shahani, backed by the Dhandla Group. Malik Zaheer Uttara and Habibullah Nawani may pose a threat to the Nawani group in this context.

Several candidates, including Hamida Bano, Aamir Shahani, Ziaullah Dhandla, Habibullah Nawani, Chaudhry Muhammad Nasrullah, Muntazar Mehdi, TLP's Bahram Khan, PTI's Farhan Nisar, Asif Inayat Shahani, and Muhammad Afzal Dhandla, have submitted their nomination papers for PP-93 Bhakkar Five (Bhakkar Dehi).

However, the real race is expected to be between Amir Inayat Shahani and Ziaullah Dhandla. The contesting of the election by former allies Habibullah Nawani and Chaudhry Nasrullah will be a setback for the Nawani group.

The real situation will only be assessed after the objections to the nomination papers of the aspirants are reviewed.